COVID-19 and Pacific food system resilience: opportunities to build a robust response.

The unfolding COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of the Pacific food system to externalities and has had far-reaching impacts, despite the small number of COVID-19 cases recorded thus far. Measures adopted to mitigate risk from the pandemic have had severe impacts on tourism, remittances, and international trade, among other aspects of the political economy of the region, and are thus impacting on food systems, food security and livelihoods. Of particular concern will be the interplay between loss of incomes and the availability and affordability of local and imported foods. In this paper, we examine some of the key pathways of impact on food systems, and identify opportunities to strengthen Pacific food systems during these challenging times. The great diversity among Pacific Island Countries and Territories in their economies, societies, and agricultural potential will be an important guide to planning interventions and developing scenarios of alternative futures. Bolstering regional production and intraregional trade in a currently import-dependent region could strengthen the regional economy, and provide the health benefits of consuming locally produced and harvested fresh foods - as well as decreasing reliance on global supply chains. However, significant production, processing, and storage challenges remain and would need to be consistently overcome to influence a move away from shelf-stable foods, particularly during periods when human movement is restricted and during post-disaster recovery.

Declines and Plateaux in Smoking Prevalence Over Three Decades in Fiji.

OBJECTIVES: To examine trends from 1980 to 2011 in daily tobacco smoking by sex, ethnicity, age, and urban/rural in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25-64 years. METHODS: Unit record data from five population-based surveys (n = 14 528) allowed classification of participants as: (1) never-smoker, ex-smoker, or non-daily smoker; or (2) daily smoker, reporting smoking <20 or ≥20 tobacco products (cigarettes/cigars/pipes) a day. Trends were examined using spline analyses. RESULTS: Over 1980-2011 the prevalence of reported daily tobacco smoking decreased significantly in both sexes and ethnicities, with the greatest decline during 1980-2000. Declines were from 81.7% to 27.0% in i-Taukei men; 55.3% to 26.3% in Indian men; 48.1% to 9.5% in i-Taukei women; and 13.8% to 1.3% in Indian women (p < .0001). Declines were consistent across all age groups in men, while there were greater declines among older age groups in women; and greater declines from higher prevalences in rural compared to urban areas in both sexes and ethnicities. Smoking ≥20 tobacco products per day declined significantly in i-Taukei men from 8.0% to 1.9% (p < .0001); there were also declines in Indian men (4.6% to 2.0%) and i-Taukei women (2.6% to 0.6%), but these were not statistically significant; and Indian women remained <0.2% throughout the period. CONCLUSIONS: Significant declines in daily tobacco smoking have occurred in Fiji in both sexes and ethnicities during the past 30 years, which is consistent with declines in tobacco apparent consumption and household expenditure. However, prevalence remains high in men at around 27% in 2011, with plateau at this level in i-Taukei. IMPLICATIONS: This is the first study to show nationally representative population trends in tobacco smoking in a developing country over such a long period (>30 years) based on empirical unit record data (n = 14 528). Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality throughout the Pacific Island region. This is the first study to show evidence of substantial declines over several decades in a cardiovascular disease risk factor in a Pacific Island country, and provides important evidence for further research into the interventions and events which may have facilitated this decline.

Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Fiji.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence is traditionally derived from cohort studies that are not always feasible, representative, or available. The present study estimates T2DM incidence in Fijian adults from T2DM prevalence estimates assembled from surveys of 25-64 year old adults conducted over 30 years (n = 14,288). METHODS: T2DM prevalence by five-year age group from five population-based risk factor surveys conducted over 1980-2011 were variously adjusted for urban-rural residency, ethnicity, and sex to previous censuses (1976, 1986, 1996, 2009) to improve representativeness. Prevalence estimates were then used to calculate T2DM incidence based on birth cohorts from the age-period (Lexis) matrix following the Styblo technique, first used to estimate annual risk of tuberculosis infection (incidence) from sequential Mantoux population surveys. Poisson regression of year, age, sex, and ethnicity strata (n = 160) was used to develop projections of T2DM prevalence and incidence to 2020 based on various scenarios of population weight measured by body mass index (BMI) change. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence and annual incidence increased in Fiji over 1980-2011. Prevalence was higher in Indians and men than i-Taukei and women. Incidence was higher in Indians and women. From regression analyses, absolute reductions of 2.6 to 5.1% in T2DM prevalence (13-26% lower), and 0.5-0.9 per 1000 person-years in incidence (8-14% lower), could be expected in 2020 in adults if mean population weight could be reduced by 1-4 kg, compared to the current period trend in weight gain. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first application of the Styblo technique to calculate T2DM incidence from population-based prevalence surveys over time. Reductions in population BMI are predicted to reduce T2DM incidence and prevalence in Fiji among adults aged 25-64 years.

Continued increases in hypertension over three decades in Fiji, and the influence of obesity.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse trends during 1980-2011 in hypertension prevalence and SBP/DBP by sex in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25-64 years; and to assess effects of BMI. METHODS: Unit record data from five population-based surveys were included (n = 14, 191). Surveys were adjusted to the nearest previous census to improve national representativeness. Hypertension was defined as SBP at least 140  mmHg and/or DBP at least 90  mmHg and/or on medication for hypertension. Regression (Poisson and linear) was used to assess period trends. RESULTS: Over 1980-2011 hypertension prevalence (%) and mean blood pressure (BP) (SBP/DBP mmHg) increased significantly (P < 0.001) in both sexes and ethnicities. Increases in hypertension were: from 16.2 to 41.3% in i-Taukei men (mean BP from 122/73 to 135/81); from 20.5 to 37.8% in Indian men (mean BP from 122/74 to 133/81); from 25.9 to 36.9% in i-Taukei women (mean BP from 126/76 to 132/81); and from 17.6 to 33.1% in Indian women (mean BP 117/71 to 130/81). The age-adjusted trend in hypertension and mean BP (over 32 years) declined after adjusting for BMI, with effects of obesity greater in women than men, and in Indians than i-Taukei. BMI explained 45% of the age-adjusted increase in DBP over the period in Indians (both sexes), and 16% (men) and 38% (women) in i-Taukei. CONCLUSION: Significant increases have occurred in hypertension prevalence and SBP/DBP in both sexes and ethnicities of Fiji during 1980-2011 with no indication of decline, contributing to significant premature mortality from cardiovascular disease.

Diabetes and obesity trends in Fiji over 30 years.

BACKGROUND: No systematic comparison has been conducted in Fiji using all suitable surveys of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity prevalence after standardizing methodology and definitions. METHODS: Unit records from six surveys of Fiji adults were variously adjusted for age, ethnicity (Fiji Melanesians, i-Taukei, and Fijians of Asian Indian descent [Indians]) and urban-rural by sex to previous censuses. Trends were assessed using meta-regression (random effect models) and estimates projected to 2020. Poisson regression of strata was used to assess the effect of body mass index (BMI) increases on T2DM period trends. RESULTS: Over 1980-2011, T2DM prevalence increased in i-Taukei men (3.2% to 11.1%; 1.32%/5 years) and women (5.3% to 13.6%; 1.40%/5 years) and Indian men (11.1% to 17.9%; 1.24%/5 years) and women (11.2% to 19.9%; 1.71%/5 years). Projected T2DM prevalence in 2020 is 13.3% and 16.7% in i-Taukei men and women, and 23.4% and 24.1% in Indian men and women, respectively. Obesity prevalence increased in i-Taukei men (12.6% to 28.9%; 2.99%/5 years) and women (30.1% to 52.9%; 3.84%/5 years) and in Indian men (2.8% to 9.4%; 1.21%/5 years) and women (13.2% to 26.6%; 2.61%/5 years). Projected obesity prevalence in 2020 is 34.0% and 60.0% in i-Taukei and women, and 11.4% and 31.0% in Indian men and women, respectively. After age-adjustment, an estimated 27%, 25%, 16% and 18% of the T2DM period trend is attributable to BMI in i-Taukei men and women and Indian men and women, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of T2DM in Fiji is projected to continue increasing, driven by rising obesity, with consequences for premature mortality and life expectancy.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration of Indigenous-Fijian and Fijian-Indian women.

BACKGROUND: Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) concentrations are lower in Pacific people compared to Caucasians living in New Zealand. However, there are no data on the 25OHD concentrations of Pacific people living in the Pacific Islands. AIM: To assess the vitamin D status of indigenous and Indian Fijian women living in Fiji by measuring 25OHD concentrations. METHODS: 25OHD concentrations in a national sample of 511 Fijian women (15-44 y). RESULTS: The mean 25OHD concentration of Fijian women was 76 nmol/L (95% CI: 73, 78). 25OHD was lower in Fijian Indian [70 (66, 74) nmol/L; n=205] women compared to indigenous Fijians [80 (76, 84) nmol/L; n=306] (p<0.0001). The mean 25OHD was higher in rural [77 (74, 80) nmol/L; n=392] than urban [70 (65, 76) nmol/L; n=119] women (p<0.0001). Body mass index (BMI) and age were not predictors of 25OHD concentrations. Of Fijian females, 3%, 11%, and 56% had 25OHD concentrations indicative of 25OHD insufficiency using cut-offs of < or =37.5, < or =50 and < or =80 nmol/L, respectively. CONCLUSION: Mean 25OHD in Fijian women was generally adequate and exceed concentrations reported in Pacific females living in New Zealand.